A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
